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Calibration Of The Finite Element Model Of Katse Dam

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SANCOLD 2025 ANNUAL CONFERENCE 5-6 November 2025

By Ryan Cassells, ARQ Dams Pty Ltd
-co-author QHW Shaw, L Phooko, R Hlajoane and L Hattingh

The last Panel of Expert review of Katse Dam in 2018 (Dungar et al: 2019) concluded that the original design calculations although appropriate at the time, do not satisfy all the current international accepted criteria and procedures. This specifically pertains to the abutment seismic stability as well as the overall long-term behavior of the dam wall during normal operation and extreme conditions. In addition, advancements in numerical modelling techniques since the 1990s—when the dam was designed—warranted a state-of-the-art structural evaluation. As a result, the LHDA initiated a project to perform a finite element analysis of the dam as well as evaluate the monitoring system and monitoring results and determine threshold values for the monitoring system.

A key component of the structural evaluation involved developing a finite element model of the dam and foundation for undertaking state-of-the-art simulations of the dam behavior under a suite of loading conditions.

The final calibration step of the finite element (FE) model of the dam through a structural back-analysis, comparing simulated deformations with those measured on site using the results of the earlier dynamic and thermal calibration steps. Model parameters were validated by aligning the numerical predictions with observed dam displacements. This paper presents the static calibration methodology, highlighting the challenges encountered and key lessons learned.